Sunday, January 6, 2019

Why 2019 Could Be a Difficult Year : Part 2

The basic idea, then, Near Term Human Extinction (NTHE), is that there is a strong likelihood that humanity may be gone from Earth as early as 2026, give or take a few years. Climate change is moving us inexorably toward the loss of human habitat. Population growth has already far surpassed what Earth can sustainably house. Out population is currently over 7 billion, whereas the planet can only maintain 2 billion of less.

I had never thought to question the basic assumption of politics, economics, and church ministry that the key to success is continual growth. But infinite economic and population growth in a finite space is not possible. Everything living has a life cycle - flowers, trees, butterflies, frogs, dogs and cats. And humans. The same is true of collectivities. Gardens have life cycle, and forests, and churches, and societies - and species, including the human species. In fact, the universe has a life cycle. Nothing lasts forever.

Primate species, of which humans are one, generally have a life expectancy of 800,000 years, it has been observed. I was okay with us all having another 600,000 years to figure out this human thing. But now it appears that we overreached, too far and too fast. Now the foreseeable future has a very near horizon.

When you think about it, the time left us will not be the familiar normal existence until one day it all goes black and empty. No. There will be unpleasant processes going on, building momentum, increasing their impact at an increasing rate. Not just weird weather, fires, floods and drought. Also food and water shortages, fuel shortages and power outages, internet unavailability, financial and economic collapse.

Although some cheerfully insist that we can easily fix all this, their voices are becoming fewer and more urgent. The truth seems to be that it is too late to fix it. if that is the case, then what?

Feel free to leave comments below.

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

2019 Could Be a Difficult Year

Last April, I came across scientist Guy McPherson's argument that global warming's feedback loops  will cause a snowballing of disastrous effects.

For example, growing amounts of carbon in the atmosphere from burning coal and petroleum retain more and more heat emanating from the earth that previously would have simply dispersed into space. This retained heat, among other effects, melts the polar ice caps at a faster and faster rate. When the ice melts and becomes water, radiation (heat) that was previously reflected back into space by the white ice (the albedo effect) is now absorbed by dark water where the ice used to be. This increases the rate of global warming, which then melts more ice, causing more radiation to be absorbed rather than reflected, and so on.

When the polar ice cap is completely melted, the water that is now where the ice was warms up at a much faster rate. It's like an iced beverage on a summer day; as long as a bit of ice remains, the entire drink remains at 32 F. But when the ice is gone, the heat energy that previously had gone into melting the ice now rapidly warms up the drink.

Once the polar ice is gone, even the winter temperatures (which are now milder) will be incapable of recreating the ice cap. There will be some ice that reflects radiation away from Earth, but the overall rate of temperature increase will continue to grow. Any new ice will melt agin.

The effects of this feedback loop are mild at first. But when the ice cap goes, which some have predicted would happen by September 2019, there will be an abrupt change for the worse, making this year's forest fires, hurricanes, droughts and rainstorms pale in comparison.

Sooner or later (sooner, actually), the abruptly changing climate will severely hamper the production of food. That's when society - civilization - will begin to collapse.

As if all this were not bad enough, McPherson and a growing number of other scientists are concluding that it is already too late to significantly slow, much less stop or reverse the process. There is a 30-year delayed effect between human actions and their effect on the climate, just as actual weather is the delayed effect of the planet revolving around the sun.

Over the last 8 months, I have read and listened to talks and interviews fairly widely in an attempt to confirm or not McPherson's basic ideas. He is a controversial figure, but I have yet to find an argument that undermines his case. On the contrary, I have observed other scientists in the field moving closer and closer to his view.

That view is that is is unlikely that a single human will be left on the earth in 2026, or perhaps 2030.

It’s okay to stop here and look at that last sentence in disbelief. Then you may want to take the time it takes to see if McPherson's case is credible. You could google "climate change and human extinction, polar ice caps," etc. Or you may want to forget about it, at least for now. That's okay, too, of course. 

If you find something that gives reason to reject McPherson's, I will be the first to celebrate.  If you see mistakes in my reasoning, please tell me. I prefer to know and face reality, wherever it leads. 

"Squirrel!!" is a key line in the wonderful film, Up. Soon after concluding that McPherson seems to be right, I wondered how to live my life in such a perspective. Walking in our backyard, I saw a squirrel. "What will the squirrel do if we'll all be gone in a few years?" I thought. The answer was obvious: it will look for nuts, bury nuts, dig up nuts, and eat nuts. Right up to the end, it will do what squirrels do. I'm going to do what humans do, what I do: try to understand what's going on, seek continually be a better person, to be consistently grateful, kind, and helpful. Love and interact with my family. And eat healthy, walk a lot, watch movies and my favorite tv shows, root for my sports teams, be politically aware and involved. 

(Disclaimer: I am writing from memory, which is not impervious to error. I will correct possible errors when I become aware of them. I look forward to your comments below as a way of "thinking together" toward a clear picture. With regard to predictions about the future, nobody is omniscient. There will always be unforeseen factors that come into play. The science of climate change is very complex. by remaining open-minded to new information we move closer to accuracy.)

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