This sounds to me like a useful model for the growth and decline of churches and individuals.
Toynbee lists five kinds of challenges for a people. Referring to "the virtues of adversity," he treats each challenge as a stimulus to the growth of a people if they respond creatively to it:
1. The stimulus of a difficult terrain to work in.
2. The stimulus of new ground to explore, occupy and develop.
3. The stimulus of a blow or setback that is inflicted.
4. The stimulus of some kind of constant pressure.
5. The stimulus of one's own handicaps and weaknesses.
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